How to save on your mistakes, or analysis of hands in poker. Hand Analysis Using Poker Combinatorics Poker Hand Analysis

If you want to improve your poker playing level, then the best thing you can do is to record and then analyze the played hands. But just writing down the played hands and reviewing them is not enough. You must ask yourself the right questions.

There are not many options for constructive analysis. I have detailed an in-depth analysis method in my new book Poker's 1%. If you are interested in this topic and want to know which of the ways to improve your game, in my opinion, is the most effective, read about it in the book.

The first step is to select hands for analysis. I prefer to start with hands that end on the turn or river without a showdown. But any hand that you have worthy questions about is worth considering. You can choose between two and four hands from a session played.

Then you should determine the strategic line of this or that distribution. Considering that poker series is the determining factor in poker, and not individual hands played, in the long run, money is won or lost at the level of struggle strategies. You play according to a certain strategy. If your strategy better strategy opponent, then you will win at a distance. If your strategy is built in such a way as to take advantage of the opponent's weaknesses, then after a while you will simply tear him apart.
Therefore, after you have chosen a hand to analyze, the next step is to determine the key principles of your opponent's strategy.

Let's say you pick a hand that ends on the turn. You are on the button and one of the players before you limped in. This limper is your main opponent. What are the main features of this player's strategy? In an offline no-limit hold'em game, we can assume (especially given the fact that he limped into the pot) that this player is playing a lot preflop. starting hands. Perhaps he likes to watch a lot of flops in the hope of making some decent hands. It is likely that if he misses the flop, he often folds his cards. He prefers to bet one or two streets when he makes a hand - in which case he does it automatically. If you show weakness, he may very well try to steal the bank. Having collected a strong combination, he will try to find a way to provoke you into calling a large bet. For example, by slowplaying or raising on an early street.

This is what his strategy looks like. He sees a lot of flops. Without resistance, sends cards to the fold with a weak combination. In order to use all his options, he actively plays one or two streets when he gets any hand. If he senses the opponent's weakness, he may well try to use a bluff. Having collected a strong combination, this player is trying to get an expensive call.

This is a fairly standard strategy used by many offline players. What are her weaknesses? I counted a few.

1. A player often calls preflop but tends to fold on the flop or turn without a strong hand. This means that you can safely bluff the turn every time your opponent checks, and that alone will probably make the game profitable against that opponent.

2. With a strong hand, this opponent is looking to bet big. This means that you can freely bluff the river when you are in position, even if your turn bluff is called by him. With a strong hand, it will usually be uncomfortable for this opponent to slowplay to the river and then check, leaving you free to go to showdown. Given that his strategy is to get you to call a big bet when he has a strong hand, a check on the river means he's ready to fold.

3. When your opponent bets big, it's usually a strong hand, not a bluff, so you're free to give up trying to catch his bluff.

By understanding his style, we can strategize to counter. Given that our opponent is playing too many hands, our standard plan is to increase the size of the pot as early as possible. And also to bet on the turn and quite often on the river when the opponent checks. At the same time, dump on his large bets. If we develop a strategy (with regards to dealing against this particular opponent) based on his weaknesses, we can win this clash of strategies.

So, back to the analysis of the distribution. Now we have a certain strategy in mind, and we must apply it to this hand. Does our play line match our strategy, or are we missing out on an opportunity to apply our approach? Or is it a hand that doesn't require our strategy?

Here are some examples. In each case it will be a hand of a $2-$5 game, our opponent limps preflop, as described earlier, and we are on the button.

First distribution. We have 9-7. We then enter the game by calling. The player in the small blind (SB) also calls, and the big blind (BB) checks. The flop comes Q-J-7. Everyone checks and so do we. The turn is a 5. The blinds check and our opponent bets $10. We send cards to pass.

Second distribution. Our hand is A-7. We raise to $25. The blinds fold and the limper calls. The flop is K-7-6. The limper bets $25, we accept. The turn is Q. He checks, we bet $100 and Villain folds.

Third distribution. We have K.K. We raise to $25. The blinds fold and the limper calls. The flop comes Q-5-4. Villain checks, we bet $40, and he folds.

In the first hand, we missed the opportunity to apply our strategy. Our approach is to bluff the turn and river, and 9-7 on the button is a good hand. We had to raise preflop to form a pot worth stealing. Due to the fact that we did not do this, the players in the blinds ended up in the hand and a situation arose for which we do not have a profitable strategy. In this hand, we missed the opportunity to apply our strategy, and therefore the hand had to be played in a different way.

In the second example, we played according to our strategy. We raised preflop, creating a pot that we can steal on the turn or river. We flopped a pair and called a small bet. There was no reason to give up on this street. Villain's check on the turn gave the green light to our bet, and everything worked out perfectly.

The third hand is an example of a situation where we didn't have to use our strategy. We got a strong hand, made a bet, and the opponent folded the cards.

Our main task is to clearly understand what goal we are pursuing by this or that action. We must see that every little decision we make serves the greater purpose as much as possible. The next time you play, write down two to four hands. And try to develop a strategy that would allow you to beat your opponents in these hands. And then analyze the hands to find out whether you played according to the winning approach or not. If you look at what is happening from this angle, you will become a much more dangerous opponent.

SB ($71.10) plays 41/28 over 39 hands.

Distribution: I open with A2 to $3.00 and get called by the small blind. The flop is dealt AK5. I check behind my opponent. The turn is a 3. Villain leads $3.50 into $7.00, I raise to $9.00 and he folds.

Analysis: I don't see the point in betting on the flop because I'm not likely to get three streets of value from worse hands. But I can provoke bluffs with a check, hoping that my opponent will manage to “hook” on the board in some way on the turn. When a three of a kind on the turn brings a lot of different draws with it, I decide to raise to get value from my opponent's draws and any possible pair that is lower than my aces. If my opponent had called my raise, I would have made a small extra bet on many blank rivers, and I would have checked back any diamond or broadway card.

Playing against a donk bet

Now let's look at situations where Villain leads us with a donk bet on the flop. To do this, you need to set the following filters in HoldemManager:

Hero's Postion = Early

Faced Preflop 3 Bet = False

Last to Act on Flop = True

Players On Flop is = 2

Flop Continuation Bet Possible = False

As before, here are a few examples of standard donk-bet folds that don't require a lot of analysis:

Distribution #5

Effective stacks and data on the opponent:

SB ($97.50) plays 67/33 in 33 hands.

Distribution: I open my 66 with a raise and get called by the small blind. The flop comes T54. Villain leads $4.00 into $7.00, I raise to $10.00 and he folds.

Analysis: I'm convinced that in this spot my sixes are ahead of an opponent who leads this flop with a lot of random cards. The problem with calling is that most of the remaining deck consists of overcards to my sixes, which can improve the opponent on the turn. So I'm fine with finishing the hand right on the flop and taking the pot. Aside from rare wheel draws, the texture of the flop looks pretty dry, which only increases the chance that Villain has some random overcards.

Distribution No. 6

Effective stacks and data on the opponent:

BB ($102) plays 22/18/8 for 1.4k hands.

Distribution: I open with A9 to $2.50 from early position and get called by the big blind. The flop is AJ2. Opponent immediately bets $3.50 into $5.50. I call and the turn comes 8. Villain leads again, this time for $8.00 at $12.50. I call again and the river is dealt 5. Villain bets a third barrel, $16.00 at $28.50, and I fold my hand.

Analysis: Given the dry texture of the flop, there is no reason to raise. I'm not sure exactly what hands are in my opponent's donk betting range in this spot, but I think it should include A2 suited and occasionally pocket deuces. As for very strong hands like AJ and jacks, he would probably check-raise with them. Also, I think Villain would also donk bet with gutshots like KQ, QT and KT. Finally, he may have full air.

On the turn, I faced a fairly large bet from my opponent. And while it might be worth calling against a random fish, against this player who hasn't gone too far in terms of aggression before, I think it was worth just folding on the turn. When I call, I mostly just hope Villain had air on the flop, but then got some extra equity on the turn and decides to fold on the river without further improvement. Generally speaking, calling big bets in situations where I have little idea where I am (in front or behind), and especially when I have the potential to run into even bigger bets from my opponent on subsequent streets, is a very negative idea, which I will try to avoid. in the future as much as possible. Without any further reads on the turn, it's best to just fold here.

“To get to the poker Olympus, you need to constantly learn” - this is the idea that has been imposed on us, ordinary players for many years. There is nothing wrong with watching various instructional videos and articles in poker schools. However, the main vein of learning has always been under our noses - it is the analysis of our own hands. And if there is another experienced player nearby and will help with this matter, then we can consider that we are very lucky.

Why is distribution needed? To save on your mistakes! Usually a poorly played hand is used for consideration. After the game session, we must choose our worst hands and try to find the most profitable hand development. All this is done because almost the same situations are repeated quite often in poker. For example, having analyzed the line of drawing a flush draw against a loose opponent, we will definitely know the plan of action next time. If you manage to identify the problem in your distribution and find a solution, then such an error is unlikely to happen again.

For a good analysis of hands, special programs would not hurt. All users Hold'em Manager can safely find all the necessary played hands after the game session, since the entire history is recorded on the computer. Next, you need a program for calculating equity. It can be Equilab, CardrunnersEV or any special online calculator.

Now you need to decide on the sequence. Despite the wide variety of game situations, there is a certain algorithm by which you can parse most of the hands:

1. Determine the opponent's range. In order to correctly assess your chances in the hand, you need to roughly understand what cards your opponent might have? Let's say we open with UTG, the cut-off and the button call, and the tight-passive player in the small blind 3-bets. In this case, we think the SB has a monster on hand, and here's why: his playstyle is very infrequently action-packed, and here he's 3-betting out of position against an early raise and two limpers. Pocket aces, kings, queens, jacks, maybe even a "big slick" - only such cards can this opponent have.
2. We choose development options. After the received 3-bet, we have only three options for the development of the hand: call, 4-bet or fold. If we just fold, there will be neither a win nor a big loss. To call a 3-bet, we need to consider the strength of our own hand, the pot odds, and the possible range of opponents involved in the hand. For example, it is sometimes very profitable to play low suited connectors against a few tight players with a narrow range. Finally, consider the 4-bet option. Here the biggest attention should be paid to your cards and how often the opponent folds to re-raises. Are we ready to go all the way with this hand? We need to know the answer to this question from the start, since folding after our opponent's 5-bet will deprive us of most of the chips.
3. We draw conclusions. Having decided on the opponent's range and choosing the necessary variant of the development of the distribution, we only have to correct the opponent's range and work out a plan of action for similar situations. Let's say a loose-aggressive player instead of a tight-passive player makes a 3-bet. What to do in this case? Here it is more necessary to look at the strength of your hand. Most likely, our 4-bet will be followed by an all-in, fold good cards against aggressive players is not the case, so the only thing left is to call. A good board hit and we'll hit a good pot since our opponent is likely to bet multiple streets.

Do not be upset if you cannot immediately find the best option for a particular case. Sometimes it happens that any decision is negative, and then you have to choose the lesser of two evils. When parsing hands, it is necessary to take into account as many different factors as possible that affect the correctness of the decision. At first, we need to do this immediately after the game, but with experience, any player can learn how to make positive moves right during the current hand.

What is distribution breakdown? This is the consideration of a certain hand outside the gaming table in order to find the most profitable line of play.

Why parse the hand after it has been played? All situations in can be adjusted to certain patterns. Once you find the most profitable line in a hand, you can apply it to other hands of the same type. In addition, analyzing the hand, you can find weaknesses in your own game. Once having identified a problem, the player will not commit it again.

What do we need for this? To fully analyze the hand, we need to have a poker program that can calculate equity. It can be , Equilab, Combonator or one of the online resources. For in-depth analysis, you can use programs such as CardrunnersEV, but this is far from necessary.

How to parse distribution? What to look for and what sequence to follow? Each distribution is unique. It is impossible to come up with a parsing algorithm that is equally suitable for all hands. However, it is possible to set a specific parsing sequence that can be applied to all types of hands.

Step 1 in Debriefing: Compiling an Opponent's Range

First, we ask ourselves the question: with what could this player perform a certain action? For example, we made from an early position and tight player 3-bet against us in the big blind. What cards does he have? He's tight, which means he probably won't 3-bet with a weak hand. He also understands that he will probably play out of position. In addition, he sees what we have done from early position and imagines our cards are more or less strong. Given all the above factors, we can assume that he is thus playing strong cards. Let's say he has AA, AK, AQs, KK, QQ, JJ.

Step 2 in Debriefing: Debriefing Options

Now you need to decide how to play your hand in the most profitable way. We have three options: , call, 4-bet. We evaluate each of the options separately.

1. Fold. By simply folding our cards, we will not win money and we will not lose more than we have already invested in the pot.
2. Col. When calculating the profitability of a call, it is necessary to take into account the strength of our hand, the probabilities of hitting in and the estimated . Each time these values ​​will be different.
3. 4-bet At this stage, we ask ourselves the question: how often will our opponent fold to a 4-bet? Let's assume he folds JJ, AQs, AK. AA, KK, QQ remain in his calling range. Please note, this is not 50/50. There are 6 combinations for each pocket pair, 12 combinations for the combination of ace with king and only 4 combinations for AQs. Villain folds 22 combos out of 40 possible, so the folding frequency is 55%. Now we evaluate the profitability of the action. At 55% we will win the pot, and at 45% we are up against a range of AA, KK and QQ.

Debriefing Step 3: The Lesser of Two Evils

We always strive to choose the most optimal draw line. Sometimes we find ourselves in a situation where all the lines are negative. Many in this case simply decide to fold the cards. They justify this by the fact that it has a zero mathematical expectation. This is not true. If we have already invested money in the bank and discarding the cards, we will lose money for the distribution. V certain moment of time, the fold does indeed have a zero expected value, but by folding the entire line of play takes a negative result. Sometimes it's more profitable to 4-bet and lose 2bb per hand than to fold after investing 4bb beforehand.

Debriefing Step 4: Adjusting Ranges

After each action taken by the opponent, it is necessary to narrow his range. He won't play the same in every situation with his entire range. Having made the adjustment, it is necessary to make all the calculations again.

One of the main differences between competent players and mediocre players is what they do after a game session. A weak player, having finished the game, does not analyze the played hands, while a strong one analyzes difficult situations and learns from the mistakes made.

Post-game analysis includes two techniques: the first for analyzing the situations in which you defended, and the second for the spots in which you attacked. We will analyze each of the techniques within the framework of this material in separate articles.

The concept of minimum protection frequency is your shield

The minimum defense frequency refers to the frequency with which we must continue the draw, faced with an opponent's bet, so as not to be exploited in the aspect of frequent folds to opponent's bluffs. To put it simply, if we fold more often than is necessary for the MHZ, then our opponents will be able to exploit us with a high-frequency bluff.

For example, if we get a bet of 75% of the pot, then the minimum protection frequency will be 57%. This means that we should continue with 57% of our range after our opponent's bet so as not to be exploited.

The concept of pot odds is your sword

Through the concept of pot odds, we can figure out how often we need to bluff in order for our opponent to become indifferent to calling with their bluff catchers. From this point of view, the pot odds will be comparable to the required frequency of our bluffs. Simply put, we can make our opponent call-indifferent (0EV) with our bluff-catchers by bluffing at a frequency equal to the pot odds we give our opponent to call.

For example, if we bet 75% of the pot, Villain's pot odds will be 30%, which means that his calling hands must win the pot at showdown 30% of the time. It turns out that in order to prevent the opponent from profiting from us by raising or lowering the frequency of his calls, we must bluff with a frequency equal to the value of the pot odds that we offer our opponent to call - 30%.

Let's also calculate the optimal bluff frequencies on the flop and turn, taking into account the same bet sizing. If we bet 70% of our range for value on the river, then the percentage of value hands in our range on the turn would be 49% (0.7*0.7) and 34.3% on the flop (0.49*0.7). It turns out that in order for our opponent’s calldowns not to bring him profit, we must have the following ratios of value to bluffs on each of the streets, taking into account the fact that we bet 3/4 of the pot everywhere:

• Flop: 34.3% for value, 65.7% for bluffs
• Turn: 49% for value, 51% for bluffs
• River: 70% for value, 30% for bluffs

It should be understood that these values ​​imply that our bluff hands will not have any equity, however, in reality this is not the case, so the number of value combinations in our ranges may be even less. Simply put, a bluff on the flop can easily turn into value on the turn or river.

Let's move on to an example of hand analysis using the above concepts:

Flop (5BB): A T♦ 6♠

Turn(12.5): 2♠

River (31.26BB): 3♣

BB protection

Preflop, the BB defends with the following range:

Flop (5BB): A T♦ 6♠

BB checks, CO bets 3.75BB, BB calls

The CO bets 75% of the pot on the flop, so the minimum defense frequency for the BB is 57%.

Let's take a look at how the BB's range on the flop compares to the CO's range:

As you can see, the BB's range has 47% equity, so it's not a mistake to fold a little more on the flop than the concept of minimum defense frequency requires, otherwise our continuation range will be too weak and we will have to fold on later streets in more big banks. The flop is the best street to fold a little more than the MHD requires because the pot is still relatively small on the flop.

So, the BB continuation range on the flop will look like this (188 combos out of 354 or 53.11% defense):

Note that even though hands sevens through nines are stronger in absolute terms than J6s or 98o, they will have less equity against Villain's value range:

Also, for simplicity of calculations, we will proceed from the fact that the BB will protect all his hands by calling.

Turn(12.5): 2♠

BB checks, CO bets 9.38BB, BB calls

CO again bets 75% of the pot, which means that the minimum defense frequency remains the same - 57%. The 2 of spades is an absolute blank, so we'll defend 110 out of 187 combos, or 58.82% of our range:

River (31.26BB): 3♣

BB checks, CO bets 23.45BB, BB calls

The river is a three of clubs, covering only the backdoor straight, but not the flush. Folding all Tx hands and some Ax, defending 63 out of 109 combos in total or 57.8% of the range:

Attack with CO

Before moving on to building ranges, let's recall our distribution:

100NL, 100BB Effective Stacks

Folds to CO who opens to 2.25BB, 2 folds, BB calls

Flop (5BB): A T♦ 6♠

BB checks, CO bets 3.75BB, BB calls

Turn(12.5): 2♠

BB checks, CO bets 9.38BB, BB calls

River (31.26BB): 3♣

BB checks, CO bets 23.45BB, BB calls

CO Opening Range:

Flop (5BB): A T♦ 6♠

BB checks, CO?

Let's assume that we will bet all three streets for value with 75% pot sizing on each and build a range of hands for three barrels. Let's determine the equity of our range against our opponent's calling range on three streets on exit relative to blank runouts.

Taking into account the analysis of BB play in the previous part, we can see that Villain needs to call our triple barrel with the majority of Ax combinations. The screenshot above shows the equity of our range versus Villain's range. Based on the data, our weakest hand to have over 50% equity against Villain's range would be A9o with 56.5% equity.

The value of 56.5% equity will be the lower limit, after reaching which we will no longer be able to comfortably call the flop or turn check-raise. Simply put, A9o is only good for two streets of value, which means we should choose one of three possible lines to play this hand:

• Flop Bet-Turn-Checkback River Bet
• Checkback flop-bet turn-bet river
• Bet Flop-Checkback-Turn-Bet River

So, let's choose the second line for A9o, and start building a range of three barrels for value from the AT hand.

• Flop Value Range: AA,TT,66,ATs+,A6s,T6s,ATo+

With the cards on the board, our total combinations in the range will be 451. Our value range will include 58 combinations, or ~13% of our original range. Compute minimal amount bluffs, taking into account the bet sizing of our barrels - 75% of the pot.

We know that 34.3% of our range on the flop should include value, so the total range (bluff and value) of betting on the flop will be 58 / 0.343 = 169 combinations. Now we can find out the minimum number of combinations for a bluff: 169 - 58 = 111. However, do not forget that the more equity our bluffs have, the wider we can bluff!

For bluffing, we will use hands that have draw potential and/or low showdown value. For example, the hand 98o would be a great candidate because it has four outs to a gutshot and no showdown value. Combinations 6x will be too good options, because:

• Will be able to improve to two pairs or thrips;
• Get called by opponent's draw hands
• Knock out an opponent's overcards that are 30% of their range.

• Flop Bluff Range:55-22,KJs+,K6s,QJs,Q6s,J6s,95s+,84s+,74s+,63s+,53s+,43s,32s,KJo+,QJo,98o

So, in the penultimate screenshot, we marked 159 bluff combinations out of 451 combinations, which is 35.25% of our initial range. This means that our flop value betting frequency will be 58 / (58 + 159) = 26.7%. Don't think it's not enough, because our bluffs will have good equity on the flop and we also have range advantage.

Turn(12.5): 2♠

BB checks, CO?

The deuce of spades is the blank card for our bluff range, as only pocket deuces have improved to a set, however, we have gained additional equity to our backdoor flush draws and gutshots.

• Turn Value Range: AA,TT,66,22,ATs+,A6s,T6s,ATo+

Our turn value betting range includes 61 of 213 hands, or 28.64% of our flop betting range. Again, we remember from the first part that for sizing 75% of the pot we need 49% of our range to be value (61 combinations) and 51% bluffs (63.5 combinations in our case).

Let's build a bluff range. Hands like 33-55 or 84s (low draw potential) we can check into a range to give up on the river. 32s has improved to a weak pair, meaning we can use its five outs to barrel the turn. The same is true for gutshots (54s, 53s, 43s). We also continue to bluff with all backdoor draws. The weakest 6x hands are also bluffs, while the strong ones are checked back as they can still win showdown.

• Turn Bluff Range: J6s,96s+,86s+,76s,63s+,53s+,43s,32s,KsQs,KsJs,QsJs,9s5s,8s5s,7s5s,8s4s,7s4s,98o

So on the turn we barrel with 68 bluff combos (32% of our flop betting range). We check 84 combinations (39.4%, which is slightly more than the 30% we were counting on - the reason for this is the blank turn card).

River (31.26BB): 3♣

The three of a kind on the river is a great card for our range, as it closes the straight at 54s, as well as several combinations of two pair: 63s and 32s.

• River Value Range: AA,TT,66,22,ATs+,A6s,T6s,63s,54s,32s,ATo+

On the river, we bet 69 out of 125 combinations for value (55%). With a 3/4 pot bet, we need to bluff 30% of the time to prevent our opponent from making money with his bluff catchers.

• River Bluff Range: 97s+,87s,9s5s,8s5s,7s5s,8s4s,7s4s,98o

To build a bluff range on the river, we will use hands with the lowest showdown value, as well as hands that block our opponent's calling range and do not block his fold range. These are hands like 9-high and weaker, giving us 29 bluff combos. As a result, the frequency of our bluffs will be equal to: 29 / (29 + 69) = 29.6%.

Conclusion

In order to make a good analysis of the played hands, you must consider your actions in terms of their impact on your ranges.

• When defending, you should use the concept that will allow you to determine the optimal continuation frequency for you, so as not to be exploited in terms of frequent folds to opponent's aggression.
• When attacking, you must use the concept in order to be able to determine the optimal bluff frequencies.

Use both of these techniques to analyze hands played and find the most effective lines of defense and attack.